As Donald Trump prepares to return as US president, all of his top cabinet candidates are China hawks. We analyze Trump's likely foreign policy and economic strategy.
If Drumpf appoints even one single neoconartist to his new cabinet, it will prove that he has learned absolutely nothing from his first term and far from being a stable genius, he is a whackadoodle imbecile. Hence properly shooting him in the head next time will raise his IQ, it will be a considerable improvement.
Putting aside Drumpf's tariff trade war blather, what is China's agenda and how can that be achieved?
Xi Jin Ping openly declared that after raising 850 million Chinese out of absolute poverty, his next goal, because relative poverty still remains widespread, is to ensure fair distribution of moderate prosperity throughout the entire country. Material wealth extending to the farthest reaches of rural China: washing machines, solar panels, electronic items, electric vehicles, indeed all consumer goods. How to achieve that? Redirect the huge Chinese manufacturing capacity away from exports and towards the largest market* in the world of 1.4 billion people: China. But how to ensure that all Chinese can afford these things? Raise their wages, particularly of the poorest people (just as Henry Ford did for his own workers, so they could afford to buy Ford cars). All this is happening RIGHT NOW.
Trade with the USA was historically important for technology transfer and industrial development of China. That phase is over. With dedollarization**, the US dollar will no longer be required to buy oil, minerals, grain etc. Having huge foreign reserves of USD will therefore be USELESS if there is nothing exported from the USA that you cannot also get elsewhere cheaper.
How to correct the huge trade surplus that China has over the USA? How to avoid accumulating increasingly useless USD?
Drumpf imposing heavy tarrifs on all Chinese products will do the trick! If all Chinese exports into USA are blocked, this totally justifies China blocking all overpriced, inferior quality US exports into China. Thank you Drumpf!
China can then focus not only on its own HUGE, increasingly more prosperous domestic market, but also on BRI connectivity and the rising BRICS economies especially ASEAN. Not to mention massive Chinese development projects in the Russian Far East, whose population will increase exponentially with climate migration as global heating proceeds apace. Also as India becomes wealthier in the short term (prior to it's medium term climate collapse) there will be huge rising demand for Chinese goods there. Africa and Bolivaran Latin America will also represent massive trade partners and resource suppliers.
What about Europe? Who the faark cares? Apart from Turkiye and those wanting to connect to the BRI eg Hungary, Serbia and maybe Slovakia, the collapsing European economies are utterly irrelevant.
How will Drumpf impose exorbitant blanket tariffs on Chinese-made imports without killing Apple, Walmart, Costco etc, (which will lead to massive US service sector job losses), and without causing US hyperinflation that will spark civil unrest, maybe even revolution? Perhaps all USAnians can be employed by the MIC and start eating bullets? Or be employed by Goober, Facepoop etc and start eating goobers and poop?
Ben perceptively mentioned that products made in Chinese owned factories in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc will simply be rebadged as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc for export, thus evading US tariffs, just as Russian oil was bought by India and rebadged, and then sold to Europe, thus evading western sanctions.
Even if the Vietnamese, Mexican, Indonesian etc factories are not Chinese owned, many will import >90% of components from China and then export the assembled products as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc, thus evading US tariffs.
What about targeted tariffs only, to protect high end industries like microchips or aerospace? The USA has already banned Chinese microchips and tried to relocate TSMC to Arizona, laying the factory foundations, but were unable to find enough qualified US personnel to run it. So the USA's plan B is to bomb TSMC in Taiwan to prevent China from getting their hands on 3nm microchips. Newsflash: China is already making 3nm microchips.
Boeing, an existing "premier" aerospace firm is going down the toilet with failing spacecraft and planes. Ditto all high tech US manufacturers, due to lack of investment in R&D, profits instead going to share buybacks and CEO bonuses.
Summary: everything Drumpf wants to do economically will massively help China and harm the USA.
Just as everything that brain-dead Biden did with his 15,000 sanctions against Russia actually massively helped Russia, screwed Europe and turbocharged dedollarization, which will ultimately kill the US economy.
Summary of summary:
The USA is faaaaarked.
*India now has the largest population, but being dreadfully poor overall is far from the largest market. Poop-in-the-street Indians cannot afford to buy imported Chinese goods no matter how cheap, as is true for the exponentially increasing number of poop-in-the-street Americans.
**Drumpf declared he will stop countries from dedollarising. Exactly how will you do that, jackass? If you impose sanctions on them, it will actually motivate them to dedollarise even faster, you moron. You are like King Canute declaring he will stop the incoming tide, but without the irony. You are a whackadoodle imbecile. Or maybe you are a covert pro-Chinese agent, in which case you are supremely clever.
PS: Francis Faarkyoullama needs to write an update, the definitive tome,
"The new End of History - how I previously got everything completely wrong but was paid well to write crap because I am a prostitute of the US empire which is now in the process of collapsing".
If Drumpf appoints even one single neoconartist to his new cabinet, it will prove that he has learned absolutely nothing from his first term and far from being a stable genius, he is a whackadoodle imbecile. Hence properly shooting him in the head next time will raise his IQ, it will be a considerable improvement.
Putting aside Drumpf's tariff trade war blather, what is China's agenda and how can that be achieved?
Xi Jin Ping openly declared that after raising 850 million Chinese out of absolute poverty, his next goal, because relative poverty still remains widespread, is to ensure fair distribution of moderate prosperity throughout the entire country. Material wealth extending to the farthest reaches of rural China: washing machines, solar panels, electronic items, electric vehicles, indeed all consumer goods. How to achieve that? Redirect the huge Chinese manufacturing capacity away from exports and towards the largest market* in the world of 1.4 billion people: China. But how to ensure that all Chinese can afford these things? Raise their wages, particularly of the poorest people (just as Henry Ford did for his own workers, so they could afford to buy Ford cars). All this is happening RIGHT NOW.
Trade with the USA was historically important for technology transfer and industrial development of China. That phase is over. With dedollarization**, the US dollar will no longer be required to buy oil, minerals, grain etc. Having huge foreign reserves of USD will therefore be USELESS if there is nothing exported from the USA that you cannot also get elsewhere cheaper.
How to correct the huge trade surplus that China has over the USA? How to avoid accumulating increasingly useless USD?
Drumpf imposing heavy tarrifs on all Chinese products will do the trick! If all Chinese exports into USA are blocked, this totally justifies China blocking all overpriced, inferior quality US exports into China. Thank you Drumpf!
China can then focus not only on its own HUGE, increasingly more prosperous domestic market, but also on BRI connectivity and the rising BRICS economies especially ASEAN. Not to mention massive Chinese development projects in the Russian Far East, whose population will increase exponentially with climate migration as global heating proceeds apace. Also as India becomes wealthier in the short term (prior to it's medium term climate collapse) there will be huge rising demand for Chinese goods there. Africa and Bolivaran Latin America will also represent massive trade partners and resource suppliers.
What about Europe? Who the faark cares? Apart from Turkiye and those wanting to connect to the BRI eg Hungary, Serbia and maybe Slovakia, the collapsing European economies are utterly irrelevant.
How will Drumpf impose exorbitant blanket tariffs on Chinese-made imports without killing Apple, Walmart, Costco etc, (which will lead to massive US service sector job losses), and without causing US hyperinflation that will spark civil unrest, maybe even revolution? Perhaps all USAnians can be employed by the MIC and start eating bullets? Or be employed by Goober, Facepoop etc and start eating goobers and poop?
Ben perceptively mentioned that products made in Chinese owned factories in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc will simply be rebadged as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc for export, thus evading US tariffs, just as Russian oil was bought by India and rebadged, and then sold to Europe, thus evading western sanctions.
Even if the Vietnamese, Mexican, Indonesian etc factories are not Chinese owned, many will import >90% of components from China and then export the assembled products as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc, thus evading US tariffs.
What about targeted tariffs only, to protect high end industries like microchips or aerospace? The USA has already banned Chinese microchips and tried to relocate TSMC to Arizona, laying the factory foundations, but were unable to find enough qualified US personnel to run it. So the USA's plan B is to bomb TSMC in Taiwan to prevent China from getting their hands on 3nm microchips. Newsflash: China is already making 3nm microchips.
Boeing, an existing "premier" aerospace firm is going down the toilet with failing spacecraft and planes. Ditto all high tech US manufacturers, due to lack of investment in R&D, profits instead going to share buybacks and CEO bonuses.
Summary: everything Drumpf wants to do economically will massively help China and harm the USA.
Just as everything that brain-dead Biden did with his 15,000 sanctions against Russia actually massively helped Russia, screwed Europe and turbocharged dedollarization, which will ultimately kill the US economy.
Summary of summary:
The USA is faaaaarked.
*India now has the largest population, but being dreadfully poor overall is far from the largest market. Poop-in-the-street Indians cannot afford to buy imported Chinese goods no matter how cheap, as is true for the exponentially increasing number of poop-in-the-street Americans.
**Drumpf declared he will stop countries from dedollarising. Exactly how will you do that, jackass? If you impose sanctions on them, it will actually motivate them to dedollarise even faster, you moron. You are like King Canute declaring he will stop the incoming tide, but without the irony. You are a whackadoodle imbecile. Or maybe you are a covert pro-Chinese agent, in which case you are supremely clever.
PS: Francis Faarkyoullama needs to write an update, the definitive tome,
"The new End of History - how I previously got everything completely wrong but was paid well to write crap because I am a prostitute of the US empire which is now in the process of collapsing".
Brilliant analysis, Ben, thank you! I am glad to be a supporter.