How Trump's return will impact the world: Dollar, China, tariffs, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, & more
As Donald Trump prepares to return as US president, all of his top cabinet candidates are China hawks. We analyze Trump's likely foreign policy and economic strategy.
As he prepares to return to the White House, US President-elect Donald Trump has appointed neoconservative Iran hawk Brian Hook to lead his State Department transition team. This has excited pro-Israel groups.
At a September event at the Israeli-American Council, Trump proudly declared, "I was the best friend Israel ever had”.
All of the likely candidates for Trump's secretary of state and national security advisor are China hawks. These include neocons Marco Rubio, Robert O'Brien, and Mike Waltz. Three other possible choices, Ric Grenell, Bill Hagerty, and Vivek Ramaswamy are so-called "MAGA" Republicans who have distanced themselves from neoconservatism, but still share the neocons' vehement hatred of China and would escalate tensions with Beijing.
Trump's former trade representative Robert Lighthizer is coming back in his second administration. Lighthizer is another hawk who oversaw the trade war on China during Trump's first term. Lighthizer started his political career in the Ronald Reagan administration in the 1980s, when he helped wage a similar trade war on Japan.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of "more than" 60% on Chinese goods. China is the United States' third-largest trading partner, after Canada and Mexico.
The former chief strategist in Trump's first administration, Steve Bannon, boasted in 2018, "We're at war with China”. Bannon confidently predicted a US war in the South China Sea by 2027. The week of the November 2024 election, Bannon made similar remarks, stating that Trump will have to "defend" Taiwanese separatists. Bannon urged Trump to settle the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine in order to prepare for conflict with Beijing.
In the following video and podcast, Ben Norton analyzes what Trump's foreign policy and economic strategy will likely be, based on his previous term and statements made by him and his allies during the 2024 campaign. Norton addresses China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, tariffs, de-dollarization, and more.
Topics
0:00 Intro
0:33 Summary of Trump's foreign policy
10:44 Neocons in Trump's cabinet
14:41 China
18:48 Tariffs & trade with China
24:47 US dollar & re-industrialization
29:39 Protectionism
37:01 Russia & Ukraine
42:23 Israel-Palestine
44:31 Iran
46:36 Middle East (West Asia): Yemen, Iraq, Syria
49:41 Latin America: Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia
53:17 Africa
54:32 Europe
56:11 Japan & South Korea
57:53 Outro
If Drumpf appoints even one single neoconartist to his new cabinet, it will prove that he has learned absolutely nothing from his first term and far from being a stable genius, he is a whackadoodle imbecile. Hence properly shooting him in the head next time will raise his IQ, it will be a considerable improvement.
Putting aside Drumpf's tariff trade war blather, what is China's agenda and how can that be achieved?
Xi Jin Ping openly declared that after raising 850 million Chinese out of absolute poverty, his next goal, because relative poverty still remains widespread, is to ensure fair distribution of moderate prosperity throughout the entire country. Material wealth extending to the farthest reaches of rural China: washing machines, solar panels, electronic items, electric vehicles, indeed all consumer goods. How to achieve that? Redirect the huge Chinese manufacturing capacity away from exports and towards the largest market* in the world of 1.4 billion people: China. But how to ensure that all Chinese can afford these things? Raise their wages, particularly of the poorest people (just as Henry Ford did for his own workers, so they could afford to buy Ford cars). All this is happening RIGHT NOW.
Trade with the USA was historically important for technology transfer and industrial development of China. That phase is over. With dedollarization**, the US dollar will no longer be required to buy oil, minerals, grain etc. Having huge foreign reserves of USD will therefore be USELESS if there is nothing exported from the USA that you cannot also get elsewhere cheaper.
How to correct the huge trade surplus that China has over the USA? How to avoid accumulating increasingly useless USD?
Drumpf imposing heavy tarrifs on all Chinese products will do the trick! If all Chinese exports into USA are blocked, this totally justifies China blocking all overpriced, inferior quality US exports into China. Thank you Drumpf!
China can then focus not only on its own HUGE, increasingly more prosperous domestic market, but also on BRI connectivity and the rising BRICS economies especially ASEAN. Not to mention massive Chinese development projects in the Russian Far East, whose population will increase exponentially with climate migration as global heating proceeds apace. Also as India becomes wealthier in the short term (prior to it's medium term climate collapse) there will be huge rising demand for Chinese goods there. Africa and Bolivaran Latin America will also represent massive trade partners and resource suppliers.
What about Europe? Who the faark cares? Apart from Turkiye and those wanting to connect to the BRI eg Hungary, Serbia and maybe Slovakia, the collapsing European economies are utterly irrelevant.
How will Drumpf impose exorbitant blanket tariffs on Chinese-made imports without killing Apple, Walmart, Costco etc, (which will lead to massive US service sector job losses), and without causing US hyperinflation that will spark civil unrest, maybe even revolution? Perhaps all USAnians can be employed by the MIC and start eating bullets? Or be employed by Goober, Facepoop etc and start eating goobers and poop?
Ben perceptively mentioned that products made in Chinese owned factories in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc will simply be rebadged as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc for export, thus evading US tariffs, just as Russian oil was bought by India and rebadged, and then sold to Europe, thus evading western sanctions.
Even if the Vietnamese, Mexican, Indonesian etc factories are not Chinese owned, many will import >90% of components from China and then export the assembled products as being made in Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia etc, thus evading US tariffs.
What about targeted tariffs only, to protect high end industries like microchips or aerospace? The USA has already banned Chinese microchips and tried to relocate TSMC to Arizona, laying the factory foundations, but were unable to find enough qualified US personnel to run it. So the USA's plan B is to bomb TSMC in Taiwan to prevent China from getting their hands on 3nm microchips. Newsflash: China is already making 3nm microchips.
Boeing, an existing "premier" aerospace firm is going down the toilet with failing spacecraft and planes. Ditto all high tech US manufacturers, due to lack of investment in R&D, profits instead going to share buybacks and CEO bonuses.
Summary: everything Drumpf wants to do economically will massively help China and harm the USA.
Just as everything that brain-dead Biden did with his 15,000 sanctions against Russia actually massively helped Russia, screwed Europe and turbocharged dedollarization, which will ultimately kill the US economy.
Summary of summary:
The USA is faaaaarked.
*India now has the largest population, but being dreadfully poor overall is far from the largest market. Poop-in-the-street Indians cannot afford to buy imported Chinese goods no matter how cheap, as is true for the exponentially increasing number of poop-in-the-street Americans.
**Drumpf declared he will stop countries from dedollarising. Exactly how will you do that, jackass? If you impose sanctions on them, it will actually motivate them to dedollarise even faster, you moron. You are like King Canute declaring he will stop the incoming tide, but without the irony. You are a whackadoodle imbecile. Or maybe you are a covert pro-Chinese agent, in which case you are supremely clever.
PS: Francis Faarkyoullama needs to write an update, the definitive tome,
"The new End of History - how I previously got everything completely wrong but was paid well to write crap because I am a prostitute of the US empire which is now in the process of collapsing".
Brilliant analysis, Ben, thank you! I am glad to be a supporter.